Putin’s Reputation was built on Savagery, Not Brilliant Military Strategy

Russia is overrated and its power overstated

Ukraine’s stunning success in routing its Russian invaders is a delightful surprise. When Russian forces stormed across the border in late February, they expected to capture Kyiv, replace Volodymyr Zelenskyy with a puppet and annex Ukraine, as they did with Crimea in 2014. Vladimir Putin had anticipated being anointed Peter the Great 2.0 and leverage his fresh military conquest to intimidate Europe into bowing to his indomitable will.

To put it mildly, Russia’s “special military operation” is off script. Putin isn’t great, while his forces in Donbas are petering out. The Russian army has shown itself to be nothing special, and it is fair to say it’s barely operating. While it’s early and there is still an enormous amount of fighting left, the big, bad Russian Bear is looking more like a feckless Teddy Bear. In retrospect, we should have seen this coming.

When has Vladimir Putin ever shown himself to be a brilliant military strategist? He made his name by brutally bombing Chechnya when the local population resisted Russian control. Putin’s campaign was known for its savagery, not military sophistication. His specialty was bombing civilians and turning Grozny into rubble. Unlike a real warrior, Putin is a bully and a coward who terrorizes unarmed civilians and smashes vital infrastructure from a distance. If you look back at all his tough guy antics, they are examples of sadism rather than strength.

Look at the little countries he’s picked on, while strutting like an MMA fighter: Chechnya, Georgia and Syrian rebels. The Russian air force appeared formidable in the skies over Syria, firing on civilians in uncontested skies. Now that their planes are encountering antiaircraft fire in Ukraine, they have been relegated as a non-factor. It seems that Putin’s army enjoys clobbering the helpless but aren’t so keen on actual combat with capable forces. This sick, sociopathic culture extends not just to foreign adversaries, but to Russian military recruits. The Guardian reports:

The ritualized bullying of new recruits, which can include beatings and psychological torture by officers and older soldiers, has been a suspected cause for hundreds of suicides and thousands of desertions in the Russian army.

Putin’s “tough guy” reputation needs to be reevaluated. Aside from attacking puny countries, the dictator has gunned down opponents, poisoned dissidents, attacked LGBTQ people and jailed critical journalists. How much courage does it take to unleash the power of the state on overmatched, unarmed victims who have virtually no ability to defend themselves?

The journalist’s pen might be mightier than the sword, but it’s no match for police with clubs and guns. Russia’s LGBTQ citizens are tough, but they can’t shield their bodies with rainbow flags against state-sponsored Russian goons. Dissidents who are poisoned with Polonium 210 have no chance of fighting back, nor do peaceful activists gunned down while crossing bridges. Each of these acts by Russia are examples of barbarism, not bravery. In Russia’s first test against a real opponent, its soldiers are sprinting to safety faster than Josh Hawley on January 6.

The big “tell” that Putin was always a phony, was his narcissistic overcompensation for his fragile masculinity. America’s right wing celebrated the dictator’s tough guy routine, but in retrospect such theatrical behavior offered a clue that Russia’s might was a mirage. I was spot on when I wrote in April:     

It’s key to remember that the Russian dictator is a performance artist. He cultivated his burly image with hilarious circus stunts, such as tranquilizing Boris the Siberian tiger. But he was surrounded by wildlife experts and the feat was about as dangerous as force feeding Ambien to Tony the Tiger. Putin also rode a horse while shirtless for a photo-op, but unlike rugged cowboys, he didn’t actually break the horse. He essentially went on a half-naked pony ride.

The bad boy then went for a dip in frigid Lake Seliger. While he gets some credit for that, a bunch of pale chubby guys perform a similar antic each year in Chicago’s Lake Michigan. Finally, to show off his alleged athletic prowess Putin put on skates and went to the hockey rink. Although relatively new to the sport, he miraculously scored eight, nine and ten goals in various exhibition games against professionals. Sure, hockey players love the ice, but probably not enough to piss off Putin and end up getting traded to Siberia.  

Unfortunately, for Vladimir Putin he’s facing “Zelenskyy the Ukrainian Tiger”, a real leader with genuine courage. He’s going to have to score actual goals on the Ukrainian military, with no one parting in fear as he glides unopposed toward the net to fake his prowess. On his blundering pony ride into Ukraine, not only is Putin shirtless, but it’s becoming clear that the would-be emperor is galloping into a fiery abyss with no clothes.

Ironically, for his insatiable need to project power, a humiliated Putin crawled into his meeting today with China’s autocrat Xi Jinping to beg for support. Groveling on hand and knee, Putin begged China to prop up Russia’s failing economy by purchasing energy at flea market prices. While the revanchist Putin had hoped to reassemble something approximating the Soviet Empire, it’s increasingly looking like he’s transforming Russia into a Chinese vassal state.

While Russia squanders its military hardware and economy in the Ukraine War, the greater potential threat to Russia’s future is China. Russia’s restive and powerful neighbor has a massive population and limited land with extensive environmental damage that is badly exacerbated by climate change, which brought about brutal heat waves this summer. The New York Times reports:

…The heat wave that baked China for weeks was startling in its scale, duration and intensity. Through July and August, it shattered temperature records, dried up rivers, withered crops, sparked wildfires and caused deaths from heatstroke. It may have been the most severe heat wave ever recorded.

With temperatures as high as 113 degrees Fahrenheit, electricity usage soared as hundreds of millions of Chinese switched on air-conditioners. But where was that power supposed to come from? Severe drought had dried up the rivers on which the country depends for much of its clean hydroelectricity, crippling output.

Meanwhile, as areas of China become too arid or polluted for human survival, the northern expanses of Russia are thawing and becoming more hospitable for living, energy cultivation and growing food. As Russia’s military deteriorates in its battle with Ukraine, its politics destabilize and its economy buckles, it is uniquely vulnerable to a Chinese invasion from the south. China might not even need to resort to a military intervention. A desperate, defeated and cash strapped Russia might be willing to sell part of its sparsely populated Siberian territory to China. While this scenario isn’t likely today, if the Russian military collapses and Putin is ousted, a weak and vulnerable Russia, with few friends, may have to cut once unthinkable deals for survival.          

A perfect metaphor for today’s Russia is Moscow’s new Ferris wheel. "There is nothing like that in Europe," Putin boasted. The massive, awe-inspiring ride was unveiled on Moscow’s 875th anniversary last week. More importantly, the festivities and fireworks were designed to distract Moscow residents from the failed war effort in Ukraine.  Like the Russian tanks in Donbas, the Ferris wheel broke down for technical reasons and riders had to be refunded.

If Putin doesn’t turn it around soon in Ukraine, the people might figure out that their dictator is nothing but a grandiose showboat who took them on a broken ride. They’ll realize that they aren’t a great country on top of the world, but a failed nation stranded on a busted hamster wheel going nowhere fast.