American Voters Choose Between Making History or Breaking America

Freedom Versus Fascism is on Today’s Ballot

Most good dramas begin with a corpse. The 2024 election is no different, with our votes leading to the death of Donald Trump’s political career or the bludgeoning of American democracy.  

Today, voters flock to the polls to choose between freedom or fascism. They will pull the lever for national renewal or national suicide.  Our country can make history by electing the first multi-racial woman to the White House or break America by elevating a convicted felon running on a deranged platform of bloodthirsty vengeance.

Will we cast ballots for Kamala Harris, a sane leader with a normal platform, or Donald Trump, a sore loser who seeks to drag us into a time machine programmed in the wrong direction?  Kamala Harris’ catchphrase is, “We are not going back!” If Trump prevails the only question is how far into the past are we traveling?

This morning, I dove headfirst into the cesspool known as Twitter and found a right-wing post that neatly encapsulated the stakes of this election. It showed a motley crew of cranks and cons who will control our lives and the fate of the world order if Trump returns to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The damage this rogue’s gallery of goons would cause our economy, personal liberty, health and national security can’t be overstated.    

Prediction Summary: I forecast that Kamala Harris will win based on the fundamentals that powered the past few election cycles. In the suburbs, moderate voters will overwhelmingly vote to protect abortion rights and preserve Obamacare. This will include former Republicans who will follow the lead of former Wyoming Republican Rep. Liz Cheney and vote for the Vice President. Harris’ closing argument was strong, while Trump’s Madison Square Garden hate fest was an unmitigated fiasco that likely cut into his recent gains with minority voters. 

Men vs. Women: This contest will likely come down to whether men backing Trump are more motivated to vote than women in favor of Harris. I am betting that women, since they have significantly more to lose, will outpace the bros and incels flocking to Trump’s patriarchal message that promises to restore their perception of lost manhood. Will young men get off the couch to vote? Or will they find the couch as comfortable and accommodating as JD Vance and stay home?

Speaking of Vance, his derisive comments about “childless cat ladies” was a major gaffe. It helped inspire superstar Taylor Swift to endorse Harris and will likely motivate many of her 282 million Instagram followers to vote blue.

Adding to the gender gap is creepy Republican Ohio Senate candidate Bernie Moreno.  At a town hall in Warren County, Ohio, he smeared many women as “single-issue voters” on abortion access and seemed puzzled as to why older women would be pro-choice.

“It’s a little crazy, by the way — especially for women that are like past 50,” Mr. Moreno said, drawing laughter from the crowd. “I’m thinking to myself: I don’t think that’s an issue for you.”

I strongly believe that older women angered by such misogynistic comments and younger Swifties will act as a Swiffer and sweep MAGA into the dustbin of history.

Madison Square Garden: Trump had a real chance to shake up political coalitions by seducing young minority men. He was making headway until his big rally at Madison Square Garden, where a hired jester opened the show by calling Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage. Jews were stereotyped as cheap and black people were pegged for carving watermelons on Halloween. Rudy Guiliani insulted Palestinians as terrorists who train their 2-year-old children to kill Americans.

This self-inflicted error reminds me of how George W. Bush sought to bring in African American voters to the GOP. He was making real progress—until his administration’s failed response to Hurricane Katrina undermined his efforts. The lost opportunity was crystalized by then-sane rapper Kanye West who said, “George Bush doesn’t care about black people.” I think Madison Square Garden did similar damage to Republican initiatives to expand the GOP tent.

Beyond the disastrous New York rally, JD Vance wrecked the GOP’s closing message. Republicans thought they had an opening to distract from the Madison Square Garden catastrophe when President Joe Biden referred to the speakers at MSG as “garbage.” The Trump campaign distorted the remarks to stir up resentment and send the message that Democrats are elitists who look down upon the masses. The former President even dressed up as a garbage man and stumbled into a garbage truck.

Unfortunately for Trump, this message was fatally undermined by Vance who closed out his vice presidential campaign in the worst possible way. From the stage Vance intoned, “In two days, we’re going to take out the trash, and the trash’s name is Kamala Harris.” The vulgar crowd of wicked deplorables and insufferable hypocrites cheered wildly, lending credence to Biden’s original assessment.

Meanwhile, Harris and Walz had a remarkably strong and error-free close to their campaign. The crowds were larger than Trumps, supporters were fired up, last-minute celebrity endorsements piled in [LeBron James, Beyonce, Eminem, and Arnold Schwarzenegger], and joy filled the hearts of supporters.

The momentum has clearly swung in Harris’ direction. This was driven home by a new, and widely respected Des Moines Register poll that shocked the world by concluding that Harris was ahead of Trump by 3-points. If this poll, headlined, “Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day”, is correct, it’s lights out for Trump.

It’s The Economy Stupid: Trump has been whining about the state of the economy and portraying America as if it were Somalia. His campaign has essentially been an “America Sucks” tour, culminating in Trump calling our country “a garbage can for the world.”

In truth, our economy is the envy of the world. People forget that Trump inherited Obama’s strong economy and slowly drove it into the ground pre-COVID. Then the pandemic finished the job Trump had already started.

Biden was dealt an unenviable hand and had to lift the economy from the ashes without causing too much inflation. The President pulled off the magic trick and our nation fared better than any developed economy on earth.

While Trump lies about the state of the economy, the raw numbers tell the truth.

·       A comparison of annual investment growth: Biden 9.9%, Trump 3.9%  

·       Stock market growth: Biden 51%, Trump 44%

·       Real GDP growth: Biden 3.1%, Trump 2.8% [Corrected for COVID]

·       Unemployment Rate: U.S. 3.7% compared to 6.7% for the European Union

·       Inflation down to the Feds 2% target

Biden expertly capitalized on his legislative prowess to prepare America for the future. He passed the Inflation Reduction Act, the Chips Act and an Infrastructure law that long eluded Trump, who gave us endless “Infrastructure Week’s” that led nowhere.  

The question is whether Harris will get credit for the Biden administration’s successes. In the latest New York Times/Siena College national poll, only 40 percent of voters approved of President Biden’s performance, and just 28 percent of voters said the country was heading in the right direction. 

Still, the economic numbers are good and position Harris to win, which is why we have seen the erosion of Trump’s unearned advantage on the economy. The more people learn about Trump’s plans, the more they recoil.

In June, Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists signed a letter warning that Trump’s proposals would “reignite’’ inflation. Voters may wake up to the fact that Donald Trump’s planned middle class tax hike will cost families an extra $4,000 a year. Hopefully, they realize that they literally can’t afford 4 more years of Donald Trump.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk, who spent more than $118 million on Trump’s campaign, told us that if Trump is elected, our families will suffer “hardship”. Yet, Musk is still demanding a massive tax cut for himself and other wealthy Trump donors while the rest of us are expected to sacrifice. In other words, this arrogant billionaire gets paid, while our families get nothing but pain. 

COVID Deaths: Herman Cain, who likely caught COVID at a Trump rally and died, won’t be voting. Neither will Trump’s most vociferous supporters who refused to wear masks or take the vaccine and paid the ultimate price for their allegiance. In a tight race where every vote matters, the absence of some of Trump’s most loyal voters could be the difference between victory and defeat. NPR reports:

Researchers from Yale University who studied the pandemic's effects on those two states [Florida and Ohio] say that from the pandemic's start in March 2020 through December 2021, "excess mortality was significantly higher for Republican voters than Democratic voters after COVID-19 vaccines were available to all adults, but not before."

More specifically, the researchers say, their adjusted analysis found that "the excess death rate among Republican voters was 43% higher than the excess death rate among Democratic voters" after vaccine eligibility was opened.

It would be poetic justice if Trump’s unseemly politicization of the pandemic led to his political downfall.

Puerto Rican Voters: The story of this election may come down to a crude “comic”, Tony Hinchcliffe, defaming beautiful Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage”. There are 6 million Puerto Ricans living in the US mainland, with 1 million living in swing states, including 473,000 residing in Pennsylvania. Perhaps, MAGA-Nation didn’t realize it, [they prefer banning books to reading them] but they are American citizens and vote.  

Following Hinchcliffe’s remarks and Trump’s non-apology, this demographic could swing the election. Puerto Rican mega-stars endorsed or campaigned with Harris including Bad Bunny, Jennifer Lopez and Ricky Martin.

If anger over the GOP’s bigotry extends to the larger Latino community, this could also cost Ted Cruz his senate seat in Texas. We can only hope Hinchcliffe’s lousy punchline will be a knockout punch for MAGA.

Pennsylvania: In a race this tight, Democrats are fortunate that Pennsylvania is in the hands of popular Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro. He is a politician with a powerful machine that will likely help provide the winning margin. Additionally, the Democratic Party reportedly has a strong GOTV operation [Get Out the Vote] that could get Harris across the finish line. The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote:

One coalition of independent, Democratic-aligned organizations plans to knock on more than 2.5 million doors across 27 counties before Election Day. (There are about 9 million registered voters in Pennsylvania.)

The combination of door knockers, phone bankers and ample money for ads is a major advantage for the Harris/Walz campaign. Conversely, the Republican Party’s shoddy GOTV operation is being run by Elon Musk and Charlie Kirk, who is the head of the right-wing organization Turning Point USA.

Numerous reports point to an amateur hour operation that could cost Trump the election. NBC News wrote:

Nine Republican operatives and canvassers connected to the Elon Musk-backed America PAC told NBC News that they’re worried the high-profile grassroots operation on behalf of Donald Trump’s presidential bid may hamper his chances in states decided by slim margins.   

…the people who spoke to NBC News, many of whom have years of experience in GOP field operations, said the operation may not be the well-oiled machine many in the party might hope it is, especially considering how much money is behind the effort. 

We also must factor in the general pandemonium and undeniable incompetence of Trump’s disorganized campaign. This week, The Atlantic published a damning story that discussed how campaign staff are exasperated with the daily insanity:

Even as they battled Democrats in a race that refuses to move outside the margin of error, some of Trump’s closest allies spent the closing months of the campaign at war with one another: planting damaging stories, rallying to the defense of wronged colleagues, and preemptively pointing fingers in the event of an electoral defeat.

At the center of this tumult, people close to Trump agreed, is a candidate whose appetite for chaos has only grown—and serves as a reminder of what awaits should he win on November 5.

Conclusion: If Harris defeats Trump, expect sour grapes including frivolous lawsuits, political violence and sundry shenanigans to try to steal the election. Under no circumstances must we allow that to happen. In America we don’t have kings, and the loser of an election must be compelled, one way or another, to step aside.

If Trump wins, expect a historic brain drain, with Americans fleeing this country in record numbers. Who wants to live in an authoritarian hellhole run by a crazy autocrat obsessed with retribution against his political opponents?

People also promised to leave the country in 2016, but largely stayed put. In the aftermath of January 6, expect many Americans to follow through on their plans. The exodus would come in waves, with the first group leaving within months. The second, and much larger wave, would occur if Trump followed through on his threats and arrested a political opponent—say Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.  

Soon, we will have the results and grapple with the future. Call me an optimist, but I refuse to believe a majority of voters are nihilistic enough to choose the most odious man in America to lead us, particularly amid credible warnings of impending fascism and religious fanaticism.

Harris is probably going to win by a very thin margin, although there is an outside chance of a relative landslide if Trump turned off enough voters in his calamitous closing act. If Trump wins, our beloved land will slide into a sorry state of demagoguery and disrepair. It could take generations to recover, if we ever do.  

Let’s hope for the best, but mentally prepare for the unthinkable. The moment of truth has finally arrived.